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Hybrid And Pure Electric Cars 2009-2019
ハイブリッドおよび純電気自動車2009〜2019年
電気自動車が活気を帯びてきました。バッテリーのみで動く電気自動車‐「純EV」‐は111年間にわたって走行距離わずか30−50マイル、ゴルフカートが唯一の電気自動車として年間数十万台が販売されてきました。ところが2009年に大きな変化が起こりました。電気自動車は急速な普及が見込まれ、2025年に製造される自動車全体の35%を占め、ハイブリッドが25%、純EVが10%と予想されます。有力な電気自動車のラインナップを持たない自動車メーカーは生き残れない可能性があります。具体的には次のような変化が起こっています:
- 中国製の純EVファミリーカーや、プラグインハイブリッド車といった純粋な電気モードで250マイル以上の走行距離を持つ自動車の発売。
- 100万を越える現在のマイルド・ハイブリッド車プリウス購入ユーザーのほか、その他数百万のユーザーにとって大変魅力的なトヨタのプラグインハイブリッド車プリウスの発売。プリウス所有者の95%は次回もプリウスを購入すると予想される。
- 従来の同型車より騒音が少なく優れた性能を持つTesla純EV高級スポーツカーの量産。大量の初注文は、とりわけFiskar Karmaといった豪華な新しい高級ハイブリッドを含めれば、これがEV車事業のドル箱になる可能性を示している。
- LGChemなどが製造する電気自動車用リチウムイオンバッテリーの寿命は10年と言われ、全てのEV車の経済性が大幅に向上し、主流の客層に受け入れられるようになる。
- オバマ大統領の経済刺激法案によりハイブリッドに144億ドルの予算を承認、他の国々でも環境保護や自動車産業救済のため、さらに石油備蓄に頼らないためのEV車の開発や補助金に多額の予算を計上した。
20年前、日本が大半のアクセサリーを無料で装備した素晴しい自動車を販売することによって、旋風を巻き起こしたのと同じように、メーカーによっては従来の自動車と同じ価格でハイブリッド車を供給することが可能になるでしょう。そうなると、従来の自動車と同じものを購入したいという理由は特になくなります。
このレポートは2009−2019年の市場規模と国の支援体制、技術、新発売車に注目します。自動車における光、熱、ショックアブソーバからのエネルギーハーベスティング、新しいバッテリー技術、燃料電池、フライホイール蓄電装置などへの取組みを調査し、実際にどの技術が重要なのかを明確にします。また最も目覚しい進歩を遂げている国、企業とその理由も明らかにします。この調査は全て2009年に実施され、世界の純EV車だけでなくハイブリッドEV車についても最新の調査結果をまとめた唯一のレポートです。
目次
Table of Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
1. INTRODUCTION
1.1. The world wakes up to global warming and oil running out.
1.2. Danger signs
1.3. Government support
1.4. Reluctant Australia
1.5. Germany the laggard
1.6. Rapid increase in number of manufacturers
2. PURE ELECTRIC CARS
2.1. The arguments against
2.2. Deja Vu
2.3. Examples of pure EV cars
2.3.1. REVA
2.3.2. ElBil Norge Buddy
2.3.3. New initiatives by Chrysler and Nissan
2.3.4. Think
2.3.5. Toyota
2.3.6. Tara Tiny
2.3.7. Aixam
2.3.8. Mitsubishi
2.3.9. Here come the Chinese - BYD and Brilliance
2.3.10. High performance pure EVs - Tesla
2.3.11. Golf EVs
3. HYBRID CARS
3.1. Construction and advantages of hybrids
3.2. Evolution
3.3. Chevrolet Volt
3.4. Market drivers
3.5. History of hybrids
4. BATTERIES, SUPERCAPACITORS AND SUPERCABATTERIES FOR CARS
4.1. What is a battery?
4.1.1. Battery history
4.1.2. Analogy to a container of liquid
4.2. Construction of a battery
4.3. Many shapes of battery
4.4. Requirements
4.5. What is on offer?
4.6. Energy density comparisons
4.7. Safety
4.8. Capacitors
4.8.1. What is a capacitor?
4.8.2. Capacitor history
4.8.3. Capacitor construction
4.9. How an ELDC supercapacitor works
4.9.1. Basic geometry
4.10. Properties of EDL
4.11. Can supercapacitors replace batteries?
4.12. Where do supercabatteries fit in?
4.13. Limitations of energy storage devices
4.14. Where supercapacitors fit in
4.15. Prospect of radically different batteries and capacitors
4.16. Threat to lithium prices?
5. ENERGY HARVESTING FOR CARS
5.1. Definition
5.2. Choices of harvesting
5.3. Opportunities for energy harvesting in cars
5.4. Fiat Phylla
5.5. Combined flexible layers
5.6. Pure EV motive power
5.7. Power from bumps in the road
5.8. Regenerative braking
5.9. Electricity from engine and exhaust heat
5.10. Vibration harvesting
6. ELECTRIC MOTORS FOR MOTIVE POWER IN CARS
6.2. Mitsubishi i-MiEV
6.3. Motor position
7. FUEL CELLS AND FLYWHEELS
7.1. Fuel cells
7.1.1. Definition and description
7.1.2. Current situation
7.1.3. Potential benefits
7.1.4. Types of fuel cell
7.2. New forms of fuel cell
7.2.1. Microbial fuel cells
7.2.2. Lightweight hydrogen generating fuel cell
7.2.3. Biomimetic approach with MIT fuel cell
7.3. Flywheels
8. MARKET FORECASTS
8.1. Car production
8.2. Cars and crude oil
8.2.2. Technical progress
8.3. Hybrid cars
8.3.1. History of hybrid car sales
8.4. Forecasts 2009-2019
8.5. Pure EVs
8.5.1. Total market
8.5.2. Market excluding golf cars
8.5.3. Golf cars
8.5.4. Fuel cell EVs
8.6. Battery trends
APPENDIX 1: GLOSSARY
APPENDIX 2: IDTECHEX PUBLICATIONS AND CONSULTANCY
TABLES
1.1. European Green Car Initiative approximate R&D budget 2010 to 2013 in millions of Euros
1.2. 80 examples of manufacturers and intending manufacturers of EV cars
2.1. 15 examples of golf EV manufacturers
3.1. Major market drivers for growth in hybrid sales
3.2. Objectives of the Ricardo Qinetiq diesel hybrid vs the Prius gasoline hybrid
3.3. Toyota Prius Sales by region 1997-2008 in thousands of units
3.4. Hybrid electric vehicles and associated events 1876-2011
4.1. The rising percentage of cost that is attributable to electronics in different types of vehicle
4.2. Important milestones in battery and capacitor history
4.3. Comparison of lead acid and lithium batteries for motive power in cars
4.4. Comparison of some options for large rechargeable lithium batteries
4.5. Examples of energy density figures for batteries, supercapacitors and other energy sources
4.6. Battery characteristics compared
4.7. Five ways in which a capacitor acts as the electrical equivalent of the spring
4.8. Early producers of electrochemical double-layer ultracapacitors
4.9. Advantages and limitations of supercapacitors
4.10. Comparison of the three types of capacitor when storing one kilojoule of energy.
4.11. Examples of energy density figures for batteries, supercapacitors and other energy sources
4.12. Advantages and disadvantages of some options for supplying electricity to small devices
5.1. Potential for improving energy harvesting efficiency
5.2. Main photovoltaic options compared
5.3. IDTechEx view of photovoltaic evolution on pure electric vehicles
6.2. Comparison of ac and dc electric motors for traction
7.1. Challenges faced in developing satisfactory fuel cells for vehicles
7.2. Types of fuel cell and characteristics
8.1. Crude oil prices 2003-2008 $/barrel
8.2. Global oil reserves, production and life
8.3. Global sales of EV cars, hybrids, pure EVs and total in thousands of units 2009-2019
8.4. Global sales of EV cars, hybrids, pure EVs and total in value $ billion 2009-2019
8.5. Toyota Prius Sales by region 1997-2008 in thousands of units
8.6. Prius US sales in units 2000-2008
8.7. Estimates for historical global hybrid car sales in units by territory with % of whole.
8.8. Prius US sales in number and percent of US hybrid market
8.9. IDTechEx projection for global hybrid car sales by territory 2009-2019 in units and %.
8.10. Number sold by market leader Toyota of all hybrids globally, market share and market drivers
8.11. IDTechEx projection for global hybrid car sales 2009-2019 in units , ex works price and total value.
8.12. IDTechEx projections for global hybrid car sales units as % of total car sales 2009-2025
8.13. Approximate number of hybrid models actual and planned by year 2000 to 2010
8.14. Global pure EV car sales 2009-2019
8.15. Global pure EV car sales 2009-2019 excluding golf cars
8.16. Global pure EV golf car sales 2009-2019
8.17. Fuel cell EVs compared with battery pure EVs and ICE hybrids
FIGURES
1.1. Geographical distribution of 80 companies making or intending to make electric cars.
2.1. Trouve' pure EV car in 1881
2.2. Red Bug pure EV in 1930
2.3. Sinclair C5
2.4. Aptera
2.5. Gemcars
2.6. REVA pure EV car
2.7. Buddy pure EV
2.8. Think City
2.9. Planned Toyota pure EV city car.
2.10. Tara Tiny
2.11. Aixam Mega City
2.12. Mitsubishi pure EV car
2.13. The BYD E6 pure EV car
2.14. Tesla Motors Roadster pure EV performance car.
2.15. Tonaro from China
2.16. Suzhou Eagle two and four seat golf cars from China
2.17. Yongkang Fourstar from China
2.18. Shadong Wuzheng golf cars
3.1. Evolution of EV design for on-road and many non-road vehicles
3.2. Chevrolet Volt internal structure
3.3. Chevrolet Volt drive train
3.4. Chevrolet Volt battery, generator and drive unit positioning
3.5. Average annual fuel consumption in US gallons by vehicle type
3.6. Toyota Prius Sales by region 1997-2008 in thousands of units
4.1. Construction of a battery cell
4.2. MEMS compared with a dust mite less than one millimetre long
4.3. Rapid progress in the capabilities of small electronic devices and their photovoltaic energy harvesting contrasted with more modest progress in improving the batteries they employ
4.4. Power in use vs duty cycle for portable and mobile devices showing zones of use of single use vs rechargeable batteries
4.5. Power requirements of small electronic products including Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN) and GSM mobile phones and the types of battery employed
4.6. Volumetric vs gravimetric energy density of batteries used in vehicles.
4.7. Subaru lithium ion manganese battery
4.8. Mitsubishi lithium ion batteries for cars
4.9. Lightning electric car
4.10. ReVolt comparison of battery parameters with zinc air
4.11. Principle of the creation and maintenance of an aluminium electrolytic capacitor
4.12. Construction of wound electrolytic capacitor
4.13. Comparison of construction diagrams of three basic types of capacitor.
4.14. Symmetric supercapacitor construction
4.15. Symmetric compared to asymmetric supercapacitor construction
4.16. Single sheets of graphene
4.17. Graphene supercapacitor cross section
4.18. Six Kilowatts supercapacitor for vehicles
4.19. Maxwell Technologies supercapacitor modules on the roof of a Scania bus
4.20. Supercapacitor and supercabattery compared.
4.21. Types of ancillary electrical equipment being improved to serve small devices
4.22. Rechargeable energy storage - where supercapacitors fit in
4.23. Energy density vs power density for storage devices, including new and experimental supoercapacitors which includes supercabatteries.
4.24. Transparent flexible battery
4.25. Bolivian salt flats
4.26. Chevrolet Volt layout
4.27. Chevrolet Volt lithium ion battery
4.28. Smart EV car layout
5.1. Where energy harvesting fits into green energy
5.2. Focus of energy harvesting development in the value chain
5.3. Examples of energy harvesting technologies, developers and manufacturers
5.4. Primary energy harvesting choices by size and efficiency
5.5. Main energy harvesting technologies are compared by life and cost per watt
5.6. Possible sites for sensors with energy harvesting in cars
5.7. Lancia car using solar energy in 1997
5.8. Fiat Phylla running laboratory and enabling technologies.
5.9. Structure of Fiat mobile laboratory.
5.10. Phylla drive train
5.11. Self sufficient accessory cluster
5.12. Thin film photovoltaic market share 2009-2012
5.13. Latest MIT solar car
5.14. GenShock prototype
5.15. Ronggui Yang.
5.16. Perpetuum electrodynamic vibration harvester with its supercapacitors.
6.1. Ford Transit pure EV
6.2. Mitsubishi i-MiEV
6.3. In wheel system of Mitsubishi
6.4. A construction of in-wheel motor
6.5. Ford Siemens EV motor for central operation
6.6. Hybrid vehicle electric motor
7.1. MIT Biomimetic fuel cell
7.2. G-30 Van Flywheel Drive System in GMR Test Cell
7.3. Computed "Lower Bound" Fuel Consumption of Heat Engine Hybrid Vehicles vs. 1980 Production Cars
7.4. FX85 Leadership Team with a Mock-Up of the FX85 Transmission
7.5. Isometric Schematic of the FX85 Drivetrain
7.6. ALPS flywheel
8.1. Global bicycle and car production millions
8.2. US oil production and imports
8.3. Global sales of EV cars, hybrids, pure EVs and total in numbers 2009-2019
8.4. Global sales of EV cars, hybrids, pure EVs and total in value $ billion 2009-2019
8.5. HEV battery sales by type 2000-2006
8.6. Toyota Prius Sales by region 1997-2008 in thousands of units
8.7. US hybrid sales by month showing sharp drop in 2008 and early 2009
8.8. Estimates for historical global hybrid car sales in units by territory with % of whole
8.9. Prius US sales in number and percent of US hybrid market
8.10. Hybrid vehicle sales by manufacturer 2000-2006
8.11. Reported hybrid vehicle sales in the USA as a percentage of total new light vehicle sales in March 2009
8.12. Global hybrid vehicle market by country % 2007
8.13. Hybrid vehicle purchases by state in the USA in units 2007
8.14. US hybrid vehicle sales by manufacturer % 2007.
8.15. Hybrid vehicle sales by model
8.16. 2006 forecast of total car sales by region 2006/2011 and 2016 in millions of units
8.17. IDTechEx projection for global hybrid car sales by territory 2009-2019 in units and %.
8.18. Number sold by market leader Toyota of all hybrids globally and market drivers
8.19. IDTechEx projections for global hybrid car sales units as % of total car sales
8.20. Total sales and hybrids
8.21. Rechargeable battery sales by type 1972-2010
発刊日
2009/08/01
体裁
PDF / 234ページ
販売価格
3,645USD
発行
IDTechEx
備考
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