SPI Infoamtion

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

2. Introduction to Influenza and its Treatment
2.1 What is Influenza?
2.2 What is the Social and Economic Burden?
2.3 Who are at Risk?
2.4 How does Influenza Spread?
2.5 Symptoms of Influenza
2.6 About the Influenza Virus
2.6.1 Antigenic Drift
2.6.2 Antigenic Shift
2.7 Seasonal Influenza Epidemic
2.8 How is Influenza Diagnosed?
2.9 Treatment of Influenza
2.9.1 Use of Antiviral Agents
2.9.2 Vaccination
2.10 Types of Influenza Vaccine
2.10.1 Trivalent Inactivated Vaccines (TIV)
2.10.2 Trivalent Live Attenuated Influenza Vaccine (LAIV)
2.11 Methods of Vaccine Production
2.11.1 Egg-Based Manufacturing Technology
2.11.2 Cell-Based Manufacturing Technology
2.11.3 Cell Based Technique has an Edge over Egg Based Vaccine Production
2.11.4 Steps Involved in Vaccine Production
2.11.5 Distribution of Vaccine
2.12 Influenza Pandemics -- The New Threat
2.12.1 Increasing Global Vaccine Access to Combat Pandemic Influenza
2.12.2 Government Policy Regarding Pandemic Influenza Vaccines in the Mature Markets

3. The Influenza Vaccine Market - Global, Mature and Emerging Sectors
3.1 Challenges in the Global Influenza Vaccine Market
3.2 The Influenza Market Generated $2.8 Billion Worldwide in 2008
3.3 The Global Market is Projected to Grow Steadily to 2020
3.4 The Mature Market is Projected to Maintain Steady Growth
3.5 The Emerging Markets are Projected to Expand Significantly
3.6 The Growth Rate of the Emerging Markets is Projected to be the Highest

4. Analysis of the Leading Players in the Influenza Vaccines Market
4.1 Influenza Vaccine Sales for Sanofi Pasteur
4.1.1 Fluzone / Vaxigrip
4.1.2 Investing in Building Capacity
4.2 Novartis Sales Projection
4.2.1 Fluvirin
4.3 GlaxoSmithKline
4.3.1 GSK’s Acquisition of ID Biomedical
4.3.2 Fluviral / FluLaval
4.3.3 Fluarix
4.3.4 Key Contracts Announced by GSK to Date
4.4 Other Manufacturers in the Mature Market
4.4.1 Sales Forecasts for Influvac, Flumist and Inflexal
4.5 The Leading Players are Building Global Manufacturing Capacities
4.6 The Leading Players are Increasing Manufacturing Capacity in the Emerging Markets

5. Analysis of the Leading Mature Markets - UK, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, US and Japan
5.1 The Mature Market is Predicted to Grow Steadily to 2020
5.1.1 Most of the Global Manufacturing Capacity is in the Mature Market Countries
5.2 EU5 -- UK, Germany, France, Spain and Italy
5.2.1 Market Growth Rates for the UK, Germany, France, Spain and Italy, 2009-2020
5.2.2 Vaccine Coverage Rates Differ Widely in the EU
5.3 United States
5.3.1 The Influenza Vaccines Market in the US is Expected to Grow to 2020
5.3.2 Sanofi Pasteur is the Market Leader in the US
5.3.3 Seasonal Influenza Vaccine Supply in the US
5.3.4 Vaccine Coverage Rate in the US
5.4 Japan
5.4.1 The Influenza Vaccine Market is also Expected to Grow in Japan
5.4.2 Vaccine Coverage Rates in Japan
5.4.3 Influenza Vaccine Prices in Japan
5.4.4 Regional Manufacturers Lead the Influenza Vaccine Market in Japan

6. Analysis of the Emerging Markets with Focus on China and India
6.1 Overview
6.2 The Emerging Market Segment is Estimated to Grow Significantly to 2020
6.3 China
6.3.1 Demographic Trends -- Demand for Influenza Vaccines to Grow by 16%
6.3.2 The Regulatory Environment in China is Complex
6.3.3 Vaccine Coverage Rates in China are Low
6.3.4 Key Players in the Chinese Market
6.3.5 Influenza Vaccine Sales Will Grow Significantly in China
6.4 India
6.4.1 Demographic Trends -- Ageing Population in India to Expand
6.4.2 5% of GDP is Spent on the Healthcare System in India
6.4.3 High Incidence of Influenza among Children
6.4.4 Only a Small Amount of Drugs are Reimbursed in India
6.4.5 The Influenza Vaccine Market in India has Growth Potential
6.4.6 Key Constraints in the Influenza Vaccines Market in India
6.4.7 Influenza Vaccine Sales will Grow Significantly in India

7. Forces Affecting the Global Influenza Vaccines Market
7.1 SWOT Analysis of the Influenza Vaccines Market, 2010-2020
7.2 International Health Agencies and Governments are Committed to Influenza Preparedness, as are the Manufacturers and Vaccine Developers
7.3 The Market has Weaknesses and Threats
7.4 Manufacturers are Anxious about the Strict and Lengthy Regulatory Procedures
7.5 The Threat of a Pandemic Creates a Demand for Vaccines

8. Pipeline Developments in the Influenza Vaccines Market
8.1 Sanofi Pasteur
8.1.1 Increased Production Capacity of Fluzone
8.1.2 Influenza Vaccine Using PER.C6 Technology - Flucell
8.1.3 Novel Intradermal Delivery System -- Flumicro
8.1.4 Universal Influenza A Recombinant Vaccine -- ACAM Flu A
8.1.5 Pandemic Preparedness: Vaccine Against H5N1 Virus (Avian Flu)
8.1.6 Pandemic Preparedness: Vaccine Against H1N1 Virus (Swine Flu)
8.2 Novartis
8.2.1 Acquisition of Chiron - Optaflu
8.2.2 Investigational Pre-Pandemic Vaccine AFLUNOV
8.2.3 Alliance with Intercell AG-Use of Next-Generation IC31 Adjuvant
8.2.4 Commitment to Pandemic Preparedness
8.3 GlaxoSmithKline PLC
8.3.1 Stockpile Initiative
8.3.2 Prepandrix -- The H5N1 Pre-pandemic Vaccine
8.3.3 Late Phase Studies on New Generation Seasonal Influenza Vaccine
8.4 Other Vaccines in the Pipeline
8.5 Ongoing Studies on Vaccine Development
8.5.1 Universal Vaccine
8.5.2 Development of a Novel Vaccine Delivery System
8.5.3 Pandemic Vaccine
8.5.4 WHO Global Pandemic Influenza Action Plan (GAP)
8.5.4.1 New Production Facilities
8.5.4.2 Grants to Fund Research and Development
8.5.4.3 Constraints Faced by Research and Development
8.5.4.4 Steps Taken to Overcome Constraints
8.5.4.5 An Example of Technology Transfer in India

9. Experts' Views on the Influenza Vaccines Market
9.1 Interview with Richard de Souza and Alan Smith
9.1.1 On the Constraints of Developing a Seasonal Influenza Vaccine
9.1.2 On the Principal Drivers and Restraints in the Influenza Vaccine Market
9.1.3 On Vaccination Coverage Rates in the Mature and Emerging Markets
9.1.4 On the Important Pipeline Developments
9.1.5 On Vaccine Development in the Emerging Markets
9.1.6 On the Future of Influenza Vaccines
9.2 Interview with Catherine Ammon
9.2.1 On the Preparedness of Nations to Tackle a Pandemic
9.2.2 On the Current and Future Vaccination Rates
9.2.3 On the Most Important Unmet Need for Influenza Management
9.2.4 On the Principal Drivers and Restraints in the Vaccine Market
9.2.5 On the Common Seasonal Influenza Vaccines used in Switzerland
9.2.6 On the Pipeline Vaccines with Most Promise
9.2.7 Other Comments on Influenza Vaccines and their Future

10. Conclusions
10.1 Influenza - More Dangerous than Generally Believed Previously
10.2 Vaccines -- The Only Way to Contain the Spread
10.3 Influenza Vaccines -- Demand vs. Supply
10.4 The Influenza Vaccine Market is Worth $3 Billion Currently
10.5 Sanofi Pasteur, Novartis and GlaxoSmithKline - the Top Three Players
10.6 The Top Three Companies -- Sales Growth
10.7 Growth of the Mature Markets to 2020
10.8 Growth of the Emerging Markets to 2020

List of Tables
Table 2.1 Comparison Between TIV and LAIV Technologies
Table 3.1 Global Distribution of Influenza Vaccine Sales ($m and %), 2008
Table 3.2 Projected Market Sales ($m) and Growth Rate (%) of the Global Influenza Vaccine Market, 2008-2020
Table 3.3 Influenza Vaccine Sales Forecast ($m) and Growth Rate (%) for Mature Markets, 2008-2020
Table 3.4 Geographical Sales ($m) and Market Shares (%) for the Influenza Vaccine Market in 2008, 2012, 2016 and 2020
Table 3.5 Influenza Vaccine Sales Forecast ($m) and Growth Rate (%) for Emerging Markets, 2008-2020
Table 4.1 Global Influenza Vaccine Sales ($m) and Market Shares (%) for Key Players, 2008-2020
Table 4.2 Key Mergers and Acquisitions in the Influenza Vaccines Market, 2005-2008
Table 4.3 Global Sales ($m) for Key Influenza Vaccine Producers, 2004 and 2008
Table 4.4 Global Sales ($m) and Market Shares (%) for Leading Influenza Vaccine Products, 2008 and 2020
Table 4.5 Global Influenza Vaccine Sales Forecast ($m) and Growth Rate (%) for Sanofi Pasteur, 2008-2020
Table 4.6 Fluzone: Drivers and Restraints, 2009-2020
Table 4.7 Global Sales Forecast ($m) and Growth Rate (%) for Fluzone, 2008-2020
Table 4.8 Global Influenza Vaccine Sales Forecast ($m) and Growth Rate (%) for Novartis, 2008-2020
Table 4.9 Fluvirin: Drivers and Restraints: 2009-2020
Table 4.10 Global Sales Forecast ($m) and Growth Rate (%) for Fluvirin, 2008-2020
Table 4.11 Global Influenza Vaccine Sales Forecast ($m) and Growth Rate (%) for GlaxoSmithKline, 2008-2020
Table 4.12 Fluviral / Flulaval: Drivers and Restraints, 2009-2020
Table 4.13 Global Sales Forecast ($m) and Growth Rate (%) for Fluviral / Flulaval, 2008-2020
Table 4.14 Fluarix: Drivers and Restraints, 2009-2020
Table 4.15 Global Sales Forecast ($m) and Growth Rate (%) for Fluarix, 2008-2020
Table 4.16 Other Key Influenza Vaccine Manufacturers in Mature Markets, 2009
Table 4.17 Global Influenza Vaccine Sales Forecast ($m) and Growth Rate (%) for Other Manufacturers, 2008-2020
Table 4.18 Global Sales Forecast ($m) and Growth Rate (%) for Influvac, Flumist and Inflexal, 2008-2020
Table 4.19 Projected Global Manufacturing Capacity (Doses) for Key Players, 2012
Table 5.1 Influenza Vaccine Sales Forecast ($m) and Growth Rate (%) for Mature Markets, 2008-2020
Table 5.2 Influenza Vaccine Sales Forecast ($m) and Growth Rate (%) for EU5 Countries, 2008-2020
Table 5.3 Influenza Vaccines Sales Forecast ($m) for UK, Germany, France, Spain and Italy, 2008-2020
Table 5.4 CAGR (%) for the EU5 Countries, 2008-2020
Table 5.5 Vaccine Coverage Rate (%) in UK, Germany, France Spain and Italy, 2008-2009
Table 5.6 Influenza Vaccine Sales Forecast ($m) and Growth Rate (%) in the US, 2008-2020
Table 5.7 Top Flu Vaccine Suppliers in the US for the 2008-2009 Season
Table 5.8 Influenza Vaccine Coverage among Adults in the US, 2004-2005
Table 5.9 Influenza Vaccine Coverage among Children in the US, 2004-2005
Table 5.10 Paediatric Influenza Vaccine Price ($) List, 2009
Table 5.11 Adult Influenza Vaccines Price ($) List, 2009
Table 5.12 Influenza Vaccine Sales Forecast ($m) and Growth Rate (%) in Japan, 2008-2020
Table 5.13 Influenza Vaccine Price ($) Per Unit in Japan, 2008-2020
Table 6.1 Influenza Vaccine Sales Forecast ($m) and Growth Rate (%) in Emerging Markets, 2008-2020
Table 6.2 Leading Influenza Vaccine Manufacturers in Emerging Markets, 2009
Table 6.3 Demographic Statistics for China, 2009
Table 6.4 Estimated Number of Vaccinated People in China, 2008-2020
Table 6.5 Influenza Vaccine Market Sales Forecast ($m) for China, 2008-2020
Table 6.6 Demographic Statistics for India, 2009
Table 6.7 Estimated Number of Vaccinated People in India, 2008-2020
Table 6.8 Influenza Vaccine Market Sales Forecast ($m) and Growth Rate (%) for India, 2008-2020
Table 7.1 SWOT Analysis of the Global Influenza Vaccines Market, 2010-2020
Table 8.1 Influenza Vaccine Pipeline for Sanofi Pasteur, 2009
Table 8.2 Influenza Vaccine Pipeline for Novartis, 2009
Table 8.3 Influenza Vaccine Pipeline for GlaxoSmithKline, 2009
Table 8.4 Other Influenza Vaccines in the Pipeline, 2009
Table 10.1 Influenza Vaccine Sales Forecast ($m) for Leading Companies, 2008-2020
Table 10.2 Influenza Vaccine Sales Forecast ($m) and Growth Rate (%) for Mature Markets, 2008-2020
Table 10.3 Influenza Vaccine Sales Forecast ($m) and Growth Rate (%) for Emerging Markets, 2008-2020

List of Figures
Figure 2.1 Socio Economic Burden of Influenza
Figure 2.2 Types of Influenza A Virus
Figure 2.3 Steps Involved in Vaccine Production
Figure 3.1 Global Distribution (%) of Influenza Vaccine Sales, 2008
Figure 3.2 Influenza Vaccine Sales Forecast ($m) for the Global Market, 2008-2020
Figure 3.3 Projected Global Market Shares (%) for Influenza Vaccines in 2012, 2016 and 2020
Figure 3.4 Market Forecasts ($m) for the Global, Mature and Emerging Markets, 2008-2020
Figure 4.1 Global Influenza Vaccine Market Shares (%) for Key Players, 2008 & 2020
Figure 4.2 Global Sales ($m) for Leading Influenza Vaccine Producers, 2004 and 2008
Figure 4.3 Global Market Share (%) for Leading Products, 2008 and 2020
Figure 4.4 Global Influenza Vaccine Sales Forecast ($m) for Sanofi Pasteur, 2008-2020
Figure 4.5 Global Sales Forecast ($m) for Fluzone, 2008-2020
Figure 4.6 Global Influenza Vaccine Sales Forecast ($m) for Novartis, 2008-2020
Figure 4.7 Global Sales Forecast ($m) for Fluvirin, 2008-2020
Figure 4.8 Global Influenza Vaccine Sales Forecast ($m) for GlaxoSmithKline, 2008- 2020
Figure 4.9 Global Sales Forecast ($m) for Fluviral / Flulaval, 2008-2020
Figure 4.10 Global Sales Forecast ($m) for Fluarix, 2008-2020
Figure 4.11 Global Sales Forecast ($m) for Influvac, Flumist and Inflexal, 2008-2020
Figure 4.12 Global Manufacturing Capacities for Key Players, 2008
Figure 4.13 Projected Global Manufacturing Capacity (Doses) for Key Players, 2012
Figure 5.1 Influenza Vaccine Sales Forecast ($m) for the Mature Market, 2008-2020
Figure 5.2 Average Vaccine Prices for the Mature Markets, 2008-2020
Figure 5.3 WHO Forecast for Global Seasonal Influenza Vaccine Manufacturing Capacity, 2010
Figure 5.4 Influenza Vaccine Sales Forecast ($m) for the EU5, 2008-2020
Figure 5.5 Influenza Vaccine Sales Forecast ($m) for the UK, Germany, France, Spain and Italy, 2008-2020
Figure 5.6 Influenza Vaccines Sales Forecast ($m) for the US, 2008-2020
Figure 5.7 Influenza Vaccine Market Shares (%) in the US, 2007-2008
Figure 5.8 Influenza Vaccine Market Shares (%) in the US, 2008-2009
Figure 5.9 Influenza Vaccine Production and Distribution for the US Market, 2000-2008
Figure 5.10 Average US Influenza Vaccines CDC Prices ($), 2002-2009
Figure 5.11 Influenza Vaccines Sales Forecast ($m) in Japan, 2008-2020
Figure 5.12 Movement of Average Vaccine Price ($) Per Unit for Japan, 2008-2020
Figure 6.1 Vaccine Sales Forecast ($m) for the Emerging Markets, 2008-2020
Figure 6.2 Influenza Vaccine Sales Forecast ($m) for China, 2008-2020
Figure 6.3 Influenza Vaccine Sales Forecast ($m) for India, 2008-2020
Figure 10.1 Influenza Vaccine Sales Forecast ($m) for the Mature Markets, 2008-2020
Figure 10.2 Influenza Vaccine Sales Forecast ($m) for the Emerging Markets, 2008-2020