SPI Infoamtion

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary
1.1 Aims and Methods of this Report
1.2 Synopsis of Report

2. Introduction
2.1 What is a Virus?
2.2 Viruses and Disease
2.3 History of Virology
2.3.1 Origin of Viruses
2.3.2 Historical Developments in Virology
2.4 Know Your Enemy: Classifying Viruses
2.4.1 DNA Viruses
2.4.2 RNA Viruses
2.4.3. Reverse Transcribing Viruses
2.5 Introducing Antiviral Drugs
2.5.1. Antivirals Versus Vaccines
2.6 The Viral Life Cycle and How to Stop It
2.6.1 Cell Entry
2.6.2 Viral Particles Synthesis
2.6.3 Maturation and Release
2.6.4 Immune System Modulating
2.7 Antivirals Battle Highly Mutational Viral Genomes
2.8 The Antiviral Class in the World Anti-Infective Market

3. The Global Market for Antiviral Drugs, 2010-2025
3.1 The Global Antiviral Market was Worth Over $28bn in 2009
3.2 The Major Targets for Antiviral Drugs
3.2.1 HIV Dominates the Market
3.2.2 Hepatitis, Influenza and Herpes Markets
3.3 The Main Methods of Targeting Viruses
3.3.1 Reverse Transcriptase Inhibitors
3.3.2 Protease Inhibitors
3.3.3 Newer Anti-HIV Drug Classes
3.3.4 Nucleoside Analogues
3.3.5 Neuraminidase Inhibitors
3.3.6 Immunoglobulin
3.4 Global Antiviral Forecast 2010-2025
3.5 Global Antiviral Market by Disease Area, 2010-2025
3.6 The Rise of the Hepatitis Class from 2010-2025
3.6.1 Hepatitis’ Unique Market Strengths
3.7 Trouble in the HIV Market
3.7.1 Patent Expiry
3.7.2 Problems with Developing World Markets
3.7.2.1 Low Purchasing Power in Many African Countries
3.7.2.2 Conflicts with Governments
3.7.2.3 Premature Generics
3.7.2.4 Compromise is Unavoidable in the Developing World
3.7.3 The Outlook for The HIV Market
3.8 Influenza and Patent Rights
3.8.1 Pandemic Protection
3.8.2 Generics Will Meet the Market Need
3.9 Forecast for the Leading Antiviral Brands, 2010-2025
3.9.1. Will Tamiflu Retain its Leadership Position?
3.9.2 The Global Antivirals Market will Undergo Major Power Shift by 2015
3.9.3 Commercial Future Lies in Combination Therapies
3.9.4 Decline of the Pegasys-Ribavirin Combination Therapy?
3.9.5 Atripla will Dominate the Antivirals Market
3.10 Growing Investment in the Antivirals Market

4. Factors Affecting the World Antiviral Market 2010-2025
4.1 Strengths
4.1.1 Resistance is Useful to the Market
4.1.2 Chronic and Acute Indications Ensure Long-Term Demand for Antivirals
4.1.3 Global Scope of the VIral Threat to Public Health
4.1.4 Joint Public and Private Efforts to Facilitate Greater Accessibility are a Positive Step
4.2 Weaknesses
4.2.1 Demography
4.2.1.1 Discounting Drugs for the Developing World
4.2.2 High Drug Toxicity, Low Patient Compliance
4.2.3 The Cost of Antiviral Treatments Forces Market Exclusivity and Limits Market Growth
4.2.4. The Low Prevalence of Treatable Viral Diseases
4.3 Opportunities
4.3.1 Diagnostic Improvements
4.3.1.1 The Advantages of Early Diagnosis
4.3.1.2 The Majority of Patients Did Not Know They Were Infected
4.3.2 Novel Targets and Mechanisms Constitute an Important Market Driver
4.4 Threats
4.4.1 Generic Penetration Threatens Leading Brands
4.4.2 Does the R&D Pipeline Have Enough Potential to Replace the Ageing Brands?
4.4.3. Problems with Patents
4.4.4 Production Rate Unable to Meet Demand
4.4.5 Vaccines ? a Commercial Threat to Antiviral Drugs?
4.4.5.1 What Will Happen?

5. Leading Companies and Brands in the Antivirals Market, Forecast and Analysis 2010-2025
5.1 The Big Three: GlaxoSmithKline, Gilead Sciences and Roche Dominate the Antivirals Market
5.2 How Long Will GSK Stay on Top?
5.2.1 GSK’s Antiviral Drug Portfolio: Herpes and Influenza
5.2.2 GSK and the HIV Market
5.3 Gilead Sciences Carves into the HIV Market
5.4 Roche and Biotechnology
5.5 The Top 15 Antiviral Drugs of 2009
5.6 Tamiflu (Roche)
5.6.1 Tamiflu Dominates the Influenza Market
5.6.2 Tamiflu’s Market Performance Heavily Affected by Swine Flu
5.7 Truvada (Gilead) ? Market Prospects
5.8 Atripla (Gilead) ? Market Prospects
5.8.1 Atripla Poised for HIV Market Hegemony?
5.8.2. Potential Threats for Atripla
5.9 Valtrex (GlaxoSmithKline) ? Market Prospects
5.10 Pegasys (Roche) ? Market Prospects
5.11 Reyataz (Bristol-Myers-Squibb) ? Market Prospects
5.12 Kaletra (Abbott) ? Market Prospects
5.13 Synagis (MedImmune/AstraZeneca) ? Market Prospects
5.14 Relenza (GlaxoSmithKline) ? Market Prospects
5.15 Epzicom (GlaxoSmithKline) ? Market Prospects
5.16 Pegintron (Schering-Plough) ? Market Prospects
5.17 Baraclude (Bristol-Myers-Squibb) ? Market Prospects
5.18 Prezista (Johnson & Johnson) ? Market Prospects
5.19 Combivir (GlaxoSmithKline ? Market Prospects
5.20 Isentress (Merck & Co) ? Market Prospects

6. Antivirals in the Leading Pharmaceutical Markets 2010-2025
6.1 Sales of Antivirals in the Leading Pharmaceutical Markets in 2009
6.2 Performance of Antivirals in the Leading National Markets, 2010-2025
6.3 The US Dominance of the Antivirals Market
6.4 Other Industrialised Country Markets to Achieve Steady Growth
6.5 How Will the Leading Developing Countries Fare in the Global Antivirals Market?
6.5.1 Relevant Healthcare Issues in China and India

7. Antivirals Technology: The Future
7.1 HIV Targets and Candidates
7.2 New Reverse Transcriptase Inhibitors
7.2.1 NRTI: Apricitabine (Shire)
7.2.2 NNRTI: Rilipivirine (Johnson & Johnson; Tibotec-Virco)
7.3 Integrase Inhibitors
7.3.1 Elvitegravir (Gilead)
7.3.2 The Quad Pill (Gilead)
7.3.3 Other Integrase Inhibitors
7.4 Entry Inhibitors
7.4.1 The Potential Advantages of Host Targeting
7.4.2 Stopping Viral Entry: Attachment, Entry and Fusion Inhibitors
7.4.3 Vicrivoc (Schering-Plough)
7.5 Maturation Inhibitors
7.5.1 Bevirimat (Myriad)
7.6 Other HIV Pipeline Products
7.7 Hepatitis Pipeline Development
7.8 Interferons and Other Immunomodulators
7.8.1 Albuferon (Novartis; Human Genome Sciences)
7.9 Protease Inhibitors for Hepatitis C
7.9.1 Telaprevir (Vertex; Johnson & Johnson; Mitsubishi)
7.9.2 Boceprevir (Schering-Plough)
7.10 Polymerase Inhibitors
7.10.1 R7128 (Roche; Pharmassett)
7.11 New Frontiers in Antivirals
7.11.1 Can Monoclonal Antibodies Compete with Small Molecules?
7.11.2 Advantages of Monoclonal Antibodies
7.11.3 RNA Interference Technology Raises Fervent Investment Interest
7.11.4 Some RNA Interference Pipeline Products

8. Interviews with Experts
8.1 Interview 1: Professor Raymond F. Schinazi, Francis Winship Walters Professor of Pediatrics and Chemistry and Director of the Laboratory of Biochemical Pharmacology, Emory University and VA Medical Center
8.1.1 On the Importance of Hepatitis C in the Next Decade
8.1.2 On the New Treatments for Hepatitis C
8.1.3 On the Challenge of Viral Mutation
8.1.4 On HIV Treatment in the Next Decade
8.1.5 On the Failure of Vaccines
8.1.6 On the Cost of Antivirals
8.1.7 On the Main Drivers of the Antivirals Market
8.1.8 On Influenza Treatments
8.1.9 On Host Targeting
8.2 Interview 2: Dr. Michael Kinch, Vice President, Research and Development, Functional Genetics, Maryland, USA
8.2.1 On Promising Sub-Markets
8.2.2 On Market Drivers and Restraints
8.2.3 On the Arguments for a Host-Oriented Therapeutic Approach
8.2.4 On the Potential of Biologicals

9. Conclusions
9.1 The Antivirals Market Set to Grow
9.2 The Next Market Leader
9.3 The Rise of the Hepatitis Segment
9.4 Pipeline Developments
9.5 Antivirals: Summing up the Market’s Prospects

List of Tables
Table 2.1, Major Events in History of Virology
Table 2.2, Classification of Clinically-Significant Viruses
Table 2.3, The Viral Life Cycle and Antiviral Drugs
Table 2.4, The World Anti-Infectives Market: Sales ($bn), 2009
Table 3.1, Blockbuster Antiviral Drugs: Sales ($m) and Market Shares (%), 2009
Table 3.2, Significant NRTIs and NNRTIs, 2010
Table 3.3, Global Antivirals Market: Sales ($bn), and Growth (%), 2009-2015, 2020, 2025
Table 3.4, Global Antivirals Market by Disease Area, 2009
Table 3.5, Global Antivirals Market Disease Areas: Sales ($bn), Growth (%), 2009-2015
Table 3.6, Market Performance of Hepatitis Segment: Sales ($bn), Growth Rate (%), CAGR (%), Market Shares (%), 2009-2015
Table 3.7, Top Marketed Antiviral Therapies: Sales ($bn) and Patent Expiry Dates, 2009
Table 3.8, Market Performance of HIV Segment: Sales ($bn), Growth Rate (%), CAGR (%), Market Shares (%), 2009-2015
Table 3.9, Market Performance of Influenza Segment: Sales ($bn), Growth Rate (%), CAGR (%), Market Shares (%), 2009-2015
Table 3.10, Top 15 Antiviral Brands: Sales ($m) and Growth (%), 2009
Table 4.1, SWOT Analysis of the Antivirals Market, 2010
Table 5.1, Leading Companies in the Antivirals Market: Sales ($bn), Market Shares (%), 2009
Table 5.2, Tamiflu Sales ($m), 2009-2025
Table 5.3, Truvada Sales ($m), 2009-2025
Table 5.4, Atripla Sales ($m), 2009-2015
Table 5.5, Valtrex Sales ($m), 2009-2025
Table 5.6, Pegasys Sales ($m), 2009-2025
Table 5.7, Reyataz Sales ($m), 2009-2025
Table 5.8, Leading Protease Inhibitors: Sales ($m), 2009-2025
Table 5.9, Kaletra Sales ($m), 2009-2025
Table 5.10, Synagis Sales ($m), 2009-2025
Table 5.11, Relenza Sales ($m), 2009-2025
Table 5.12, Epzicom Sales ($m), 2009-2025
Table 5.13, Pegintron Sales ($m), 2009-2025
Table 5.14, Baraclude Sales ($m), 2009-2025
Table 5.15, Prezista Sales ($m), 2009-2025
Table 5.16, Combivir Sales ($m), 2009-2025
Table 5.17, Isentress Sales ($m), 2009-2025
Table 6.1, Antivirals in the Leading Pharmaceuticals Markets: Sales ($m), Market Shares (%), Growth (%), 2009
Table 6.2, Antivirals in the Leading Pharmaceutical Markets: Sales ($m), 2009-2015, 2020, 2025
Table 6.3, Antivirals in the Leading Pharmaceutical Markets: Sales ($m), Market Shares (%) and CAGR (%), 2009 and 2015
Table 6.4, Number of HIV Patients in Key Countries, 2010
Table 7.1, HIV Life Cycle and Relevant Drug Classes, 2010
Table 7.2, NNRTIs Currently in Development, 2010
Table 7.3, Selected Products for HIV Treatment in Phase II Development, 2010
Table 7.4, Selected Products for Hepatitis C Treatment in Phase II Development, 2010
Table 9.1, Global Antivirals Market: Sales ($bn), 2009-2025

List of Figures
Figure 2.1, The World Anti-Infectives Market: Sales ($m), 2009
Figure 3.1, Leading Disease Areas in the Antivirals Market: Sales ($m), 2009
Figure 3.2, Leading Drug Classes in the Antivirals Market: Sales ($bn), 2009
Figure 3.3, Drug Classes: Market Shares (%), 2009
Figure 3.4, Drug Classes in the HIV Disease Area: Sales ($bn), 2009
Figure 3.5, Global Antivirals Market: Sales ($bn), 2009-2015
Figure 3.6, Global Antivirals Market by Disease Area: Sales ($bn), Market Shares (%), 2009
Figure 3.7, Global Antivirals Market by Disease Area: Sales ($bn), 2009-2015
Figure 3.8, Global Hepatitis Market: Sales ($bn), 2009-2025
Figure 3.9, Global HIV Market: Sales ($bn), 2009-2015
Figure 3.10, Global Influenza Market: Sales ($bn), 2009-2015
Figure 3.11, Market Shares (%) of the Leading Antiviral Drugs, 2009
Figure 5.1, Leading Companies in the Antivirals Market: Market Shares (%), 2009
Figure 5.2, Top 15 Marketed Antiviral Drugs, Sales ($m), 2009
Figure 5.3, Top 15 Marketed Antiviral Drugs, Growth (%), 2009
Figure 5.4, Tamiflu Sales ($m), 2009-2015
Figure 5.5, Truvada Sales ($m), 2009-2015
Figure 5.6, Atripla Sales ($m), 2009-2015
Figure 5.7, Valtrex Sales ($m), 2009-2015
Figure 5.8, Pegasys Sales ($m), 2009-2015
Figure 5.9, Reyataz Sales ($m), 2009-2015
Figure 5.10, Kaletra Sales ($m), 2009-2015
Figure 5.11, Synagis Sales ($m), 2009-2015
Figure 5.12, Relenza Sales ($m), 2009-2015
Figure 5.13, Epzicom Sales ($m), 2009-2015
Figure 5.14, Pegintron Sales ($m), 2009-2015
Figure 5.15, Baraclude Sales ($m), 2009-2015
Figure 5.16, Prezista Sales ($m), 2009-2015
Figure 5.17, Combivir Sales ($m), 2009-2015
Figure 5.18, Isentress Sales ($m), 2009-2015
Figure 6.1, Antivirals in the Leading Pharmaceuticals Markets: Sales ($m), 2009
Figure 6.2, Antivirals in the Leading Pharmaceuticals Markets: Market Shares (%), 2009
Figure 6.3, Antivirals in the US Market: Sales ($m), 2009-2015
Figure 6.4, Antivirals in Other Leading Industrialised Countries: Sales ($m), 2010-2025
Figure 6.5, Antivirals in China and India: Sales ($m), 2009-2015