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Carbon Trading and the Effect of the Copenhagen Agreement: Technical options and economic drivers to a low carbon future
排出権取引およびコペンハーゲン合意の効果：低炭素の未来への技術的選択と経済的推進要因
もし世界が次世紀中に大規模な悪影響が出るのを避けたいならば、世界的に二酸化炭素排出量の削減が急務となります。現在の380ppmという数値は、（わずか17年間に30ppmという）かつてない急速な増加を表わすものです。その悪影響や予想される破滅的状況を避けるためには、二酸化炭素の最大排出量を450ppmに抑えるために緊急に行動を起こすべきだと専門家は指摘しています。現在および今後予想される排出レベルに基づいた場合、この目標を達成することは不可能です。
経済成長、消費需要、新規技術の間の相互作用は複雑であり、予測は不安定にならざるを得ません。しかし、もっと協調行動をとらなければ2030‐2050年の間のいずれかの時点でその目標は限度を超えてしまうというのが大方の一致した意見であり、最も悲観的な見方をすれば今世紀末までに800ppmを超えることが予想されています。最新技術を利用して排出量を減らす可能性は無限にあります。またその代償も大きく、20年はかかるというアナリストもいます。誰も先発者になりたがらないために、さまざまな政治的イニシアチブが頓挫しています。
経済的手段によって問題を解決しようという試みとしては、炭素価格の設定、相殺勘定、炭素市場の創設などがありました。このレポートは、問題の大きさとその本質、現在および今後予想される技術的選択について総合的な概要を示します。特に、2009年12月、コペンハーゲンにおいて国際コミュニティから広く失敗と受け止められたことに言及し、これらの問題を解決するための総論ではなく何か他の解決策を前進させるために、炭素市場の現状を詳細に分析します。
目次
Table of Contents
- Executive summary
-
Global warming: current status
The principal components of CO 2 emissions
Global warming - primary technical solutions
Global warming - further technical approaches
Global warming - political and economic approaches
Global warming - politics and economics in practice
Global warming - the likely outlook
Conclusions - Chapter 1 Introduction
-
Summary
Objectives - Chapter 2 Global warming: current status
-
Summary
Introduction
Global warming
Current situation: global CO 2 generation
Drivers of CO 2 generation: economic, social and technological trends
Emission trends for CO 2 generation
Overview of recent history
CO 2 emissions
Fossil fuel usage
Electricity consumption
CO 2 intensity
Energy intensity
Electricity intensity - Chapter 3 The principal components of CO 2 emissions
-
Summary
Introduction
Energy sources
Energy conversion
Transformation and storagePower plantsTransportation
Energy chain - overview
Energy usesPower generationTransportRoadShipping (including inland waterways)Air travelRailBuildings and constructionManufacturing industry - Chapter 4 Global warming - primary technical solutions
-
Summary
Introduction
The main physical principles and approaches to CO 2 controlCounter trendsPrincipal technological approachesMoves toward Smart GridZero Energy BuildingAlternative fuelsFuel supply chainSwitching fuelsNuclear and RenewablesMitigation by sectorPower generationEnergy efficiency - integrated IT solutions and Smart MeteringTransportPrivate cars, road freight and bus and coachBiofuelsNatural Gas (CNG / LNG / GTL)Hydrogen/Fuel CellsElectric vehiclesMode shiftsShipping (including inland waterways)Increasing efficiencyAdvancing technologyImproving operationsMode shiftPartnering for progressCO 2 emission indexing schemeEconomic instruments for international shippingAir travelFuel efficiencyTechnology developmentsEngine developmentsAircraftAlternative fuelsLower flyingRVSM (Reduced Vertical Separation Minimum)Lower flight speedsRailReducing aerodynamic resistanceConstructionReducing energy consumption and embodied energy in buildingsSwitching to low-carbon fuelsManufacturing industrySector-wide efficienciesProcess-specific improvementsOptimized operating proceduresCross-sector impact - Chapter 5 Global warming - further technical approaches
-
Summary
Introduction
Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS)Scope for captureTransmission considerationsCosts associated with CCS
Land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF)
AgricultureTechnical approachesPotential for carbon reductionForestryApproachesPotential for Carbon reductionImpact of technology availability
Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis - Chapter 6 Global warming - political and economic approaches
-
Summary
Introduction
Economic theoryTechnology alone will not workEconomic incentivesPolitical initiatives: structures and frameworkIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)KyotoAgreed mechanisms for carbon controlCopenhagenCopenhagen Accord - Chapter 7 Global warming - politics and economics in practice
-
Summary
Introduction
Emissions tradingTrading principlesTrading unitsCarbon marketsCarbon trading volumesVoluntary marketsVoluntary market trendsCarbon pricingPrices stabilizing at lower levelsTechnology transferRegional co-operationIssues around current political and economic initiativesGeneral political and economic issuesDevelopmentViews on the principle of offsettingImpact on forestrySpecific criticisms of existing carbon trading mechanismsCarbon surplusOffsets acting counter-productivelyA long list of criticismsThe future of carbon tradingCarbon trading best practice - Chapter 8 Global warming - the likely outlook
-
Summary
Introduction
Actions requiredAgenda for changeQuantitative targetsMore stringent targetsForecastsEconomic and social factorsPopulationGDPCO 2 emissionsFuture prices and effects on emissionsOutlook/developments since CopenhagenUK InitiativeExisting proposals - Chapter 9 Conclusions
-
Summary
Main achievements
Gaps in knowledge
What needs to be done - next steps
Implications for the future
Glossary
Index
Footnotes
List of Figures
Figure 2.1: Impacts of four Kaya factors on world CO 2 emissions, 2010
Figure 2.2: CO 2 emissions by country in 2007 (GtCO 2 )
Figure 3.3: Terminology for energy commodities
Figure 3.4: World total final consumption by fuel
Figure 3.5: Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROEI)
Figure 3.6: CO 2 emissions and energy use by mode of transport (2000)
Figure 7.7: Carbon prices respond to the recession (?), 2010
Figure 8.8: Global economic potential in 2030 (Bottom up): cost categories in US$/tCO 2 e
Figure 8.9: Global economic potential in 2030 (Top Down): cost categories in US$/tCO 2 e
Figure 8.10: Global economic potential in 2030: cost categories in US$/tCO 2 e
List of Tables
Table 2.1: Temperature increase at equilibrium relative to pre-industrial (C)
Table 2.2: Key ratios for energy-related CO 2 emissions in 2007
Table 2.3: Impacts of four Kaya factors on world CO 2 emissions, 2010
Table 3.4: CO 2 emissions by sector (MtCO 2 ), 2007
Table 3.5: CO 2 emissions by sector (%), 2007
Table 3.6: CO 2 emissions and energy use by mode of transport (%), 2000
Table 3.7: Conversion factors from guidelines for company reporting on greenhouse gas emissions (CO 2 ), July 2005
Table 4.8: Reduction in CO 2 emissions relative to carbon price (GtCO2/yr) 2030
Table 4.9: Reduction in CO 2 emissions for buildings relative to carbon price (GtCO 2 /yr), 2020 and 2030
Table 5.10: Reduction in CO 2 emissions for agriculture relative to Carbon Price (2030)
Table 7.11: Carbon market at a glance, volumes and values in 2008-09
Table 8.12: Carbon intensity of G20 economies excluding EU (kgCO 2 /$GDP), 2008
Table 8.13: Classification of recent (post-TAR) stabilization scenarios according to different stabilization targets and alternative stabilization metrics
Table 8.14: A view on analysts' expectations for EU ETS Phase II and Phase III
発刊日
2010/06/01
体裁
PDF / 190ページ
販売価格
2,875USD
発行
Business Insights Ltd.
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