SPI Infoamtion

Table of Contents

The Post Carbon Landscape

Acknowledgements

Practitioner Insight

Executive summary

Introduction
The low carbon system
Energy demand
Household energy demand
Passenger transport
Marine and aviation
Industrial energy demand
Commercial energy demand
Demand summary
Carbon and energy prices
Energy supply
Generation
Joining the markets - energy transmission and distribution
Two future worlds
Autonomy - "every man for himself"
Community - "all for one, and one for all"
"Autonomy" vs. "Community"
Conclusion

Chapter 1 Introduction

Summary
Introduction
The aim of this report
The systems and scenario approach
What this report is, and what it is not
The structure of the report

Chapter 2 The low carbon system

Summary
Introduction
Electricity supply
Smart Metering and Grids
Local sustainability

Chapter 3 Energy demand

Summary
Introduction

Chapter 4 Household energy demand

Summary
Introduction
Demographics
Climate change and population growth
Household heating, cooling, lighting and power

Growth in population/households

Growth in access to electricity

Complex system behavior
Fuel switching

Chapter 5 Passenger transport

Summary
Introduction
Vehicle type
From oil to the electric car
China and electric vehicles

Chapter 6 Marine and aviation

Summary
Introduction
Marine
Aviation

Chapter 7 Industrial energy demand

Summary
Introduction
Industry demand

Chapter 8 Commercial energy demand

Summary
Introduction
Commercial demand

Chapter 9 Demand summary

Summary
Introduction
Demand

Chapter 10 Carbon and energy prices

Summary
Introduction
The carbon pricing system
Carbon price direct impacts

Electrification

Economic growth

Hydrocarbon price

Emissions trading or taxes

Chapter 11 Energy supply

Summary
Introduction
Hydrocarbon
Availability of oil

Oil Shale and Shale Oil

Cost

Greenhouse gas emissions

Local environmental impacts

Availability of coal
Availability of gas
Gas from waste
Non-conventional gas
Gas hydrates
On balance

Chapter 12 Generation

Summary
Introduction
The current generation mix
The future generation mix
The replacement of centralized generation with distributed generation

Chapter 13 Joining the markets - energy transmission and distribution

Summary
Introduction
Smartening electricity and gas
Joining up electricity and gas
Smart communities

Chapter 14 Two future worlds

Summary
Introduction
Why scenarios?

Chapter 15 Autonomy - "every man for himself"

Summary
Introduction
Autonomy - "Everyman for himself"

Chapter 16 Community - "all for one, and one for all"

Summary
Introduction
Community - "All for one, and one for all"

Chapter 17 "Autonomy" vs. "Community"

Summary
Introduction
Autonomy versus Community
Weak signals
Strategic pointers

Chapter 18 Conclusion

Summary
Introduction
Lessons learned

Demand

Supply

The carbon and energy system

Scenarios

Further work
Glossary

In the System diagrams:

Index

List of Figures
Figure 2.1: Landscape carbon and demand, 2010
Figure 2.2: Energy price and hydrocarbon supply, 2010
Figure 2.3: Electricity supply
Figure 2.4: Smart (Metering and Grids)
Figure 2.5: Local sustainability, 2010
Figure 3.6: Demand, 2010
Figure 4.7: Energy intensity of economies, 1970-2005
Figure 4.8: Number of people without access to electricity (m), 2009
Figure 5.9: Fuel efficiency for cars and light trucks on the road (MPG) 1970-2005
Figure 5.10: Carbon content of fossil fuels (Tons of Carbon per TJ of energy)
Figure 10.11: The carbon pricing system, 2010
Figure 11.12: Ratio oil reserves to production, 2009
Figure 11.13: Peak Oil (bn barrels/year), 2007
Figure 11.14: Global Shale Oil reserves
Figure 11.15: Crude oil spot prices ($ per barrel), 1986-2009
Figure 11.16: Oil Shale economics
Figure 11.17: US production of unconventional gas (bcm), 2009
Figure 11.18: Percentage of total US gas production (bcm), 2009
Figure 15.19: Autonomy scenario, 2010
Figure 15.20: The carbon pricing system, 2010
Figure 16.21: Community scenario, 2010
Figure 16.22: The carbon pricing system, 2010
Figure 17.23: Autonomy vs. Community, 2010

List of Tables
Table 4.1: Population growth ratios, 2008
Table 4.2: Number of people without access to electricity (m), 2009
Table 4.3: GDP estimates
Table 4.4: Heating and cooling degree days
Table 4.5: Urbanization (%), 2007
Table 5.6: Passenger vehicles
Table 5.7: Carbon content of fossil fuels (Tons of Carbon per TJ of energy)
Table 9.8: Sectoral energy demand, 2010
Table 11.9: Oil consumption, production, reserves, 2009
Table 11.10: Global Shale Oil reserves
Table 11.11: Coal consumption, production, reserves, 2009
Table 11.12: Gas consumption, production, reserves, 2009
Table 12.13: Global generation mix, 2009
Table 12.14: Future generation mix, 2009